Early Warning Systems: AI, space and the future of disaster management
Modern tech is without a doubt one of the best weapons we have in the fight against climate change.
From artificial “trees” that can draw carbon from the atmosphere to massive wind farms that harness the elements to generate electricity, and apps to help you track your environmental impact—climate tech is all about coming up with genius ways to slow the impact of climate change.
Some of the most exciting developments in climate technology are happening in the field of early warning systems. Being able to identify and monitor potential at-risk regions is one of the best ways to prevent the worst effects of our changing atmosphere. As they say, prevention is the best cure!
What are Early Warning Systems (EWS)?
Early Warning Systems (EWS) are a proven disaster risk management tool and climate change measure which save lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. EWS can reduce loss and damage caused by hurricanes, fire, disease, and flooding up to 30% when a warning is issued within 24 hours. Early warning development is also an important part of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals as a way to support food security, resilient cities, and mitigating climate change.
Early warning systems are made up of four elements:
Disaster risk knowledge: Research into how a natural weather event unfolds and the damage it can cause, and how it is influenced and fueled by climate change.
Detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting: Identifying and tracking changes (or possible changes) that could lead to natural disasters.
Warnings and communication: Finding the best ways to educate and spread awareness so communities can act when they need to.
Preparedness and response: How to develop response plans, allocate resources, and take appropriate measures to reduce the impact of a disaster.
Examples of EWS currently in place around the world include the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which helps predict famines and food shortages by monitoring drought, food prices, and conflict. Others are weather monitoring systems like the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the United States which uses satellite data, ocean buoys, and meteorological models to track and predict how tropical storms and hurricanes develop.
The future of EWS
Much like climate technology in general, funding and work is needed to make sure the planet has enough effective early warning systems in place to tackle the rise of climate-related disasters. Around 30% of the world’s population is not covered by early warning systems, especially in developing nations and small island states. In 2022, the UN launched the Early Warnings for All initiative alongside the World Meteorological Organization. The initiative aims to protect every person on the planet with inclusive and multi-hazard early warning systems by 2027. To do this, we need ongoing innovation.
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI is playing a huge role in upgrading early warning systems (EWS) for disasters. Sure, there are some challenges, but its potential is incredible. AI can predict weather patterns and simulate models, helping regions better prepare for natural disasters—especially in remote areas where monitoring is tough. Plus, AI can process massive amounts of real-time data quickly, giving scientists a faster way to make decisions and deploy resources where they’re needed most. It’s also great at making sure warnings are sent through the right channels, so people get the info they need, when they need it.
Having said all this, AI in EWS still faces lots of barriers. AI-driven services often overlook vital case-specific nuances, such as marginalized groups and are often very expensive and resource intensive.
Space technology
In 2021, the United Nations rolled out its Space2030 Agenda, which was an ambitious plan to harness the power of space technology to improve sustainable development here on Earth. A big part of this is using space-based tools—like satellite monitoring and remote sensing—to strengthen early disaster warning systems. This tech gathers important data from space which makes it easier to predict natural disasters before they happen, which is awesome. Observations from space, combined with geographic information systems (GIS), track weather patterns, floods, earthquakes, and more as they happen, giving communities more time to prepare.
Multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS)
Multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) cover multiple dangers at once. These systems help regions prepare for complicated situations where disasters can overlap and even trigger one another, like an earthquake setting off landslides or floods. MHEWS pulls data from all kinds of sources—satellites, weather stations, and seismic sensors—to keep tabs on various hazards in real time.
Since 2015, the number of MHEWS has doubled, with systems now active in 101 countries. This huge expansion shows just how effective they are in delivering timely, actionable warnings and coordinating rapid responses to keep people safe.
Investment from Big Tech
The private sector is really stepping up when it comes to the future of early warning systems, especially with advancements in AI. Microsoft is a great example—they’re backing the UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative, which focuses on getting real-time data insights and predictive tools to areas at high risk of disasters. Meanwhile, Google is using its AI expertise to boost early warning capabilities too. Their AI-powered flood forecasting models, initially launched in South Asia, are now helping parts of Africa, by delivering flood alerts to millions via smartphone notifications. This approach means communities can prepare faster and more effectively, right from their phones, in some of the world’s most vulnerable areas.
Early warning systems (EWS) are our frontline defense against the impacts of natural disasters, making a massive difference in reducing human, economic, and environmental damage. With natural disasters increasing five-fold between 1970 and 2019, these systems are more important than ever. EWS can give communities those crucial extra minutes, hours, or even days to prepare—whether that’s for a hurricane, flood, wildfire, or other threats worsened by our changing climate. And with new tech coming in, these systems are getting smarter and faster, which means more lives and resources saved when nature strikes.
